Friday, April 29, 2011

I'm not alone in my doomsaying

I receive regular e-mail newsletter highlights of the RGE Monitor, a subscription news service of in-depth economic analysis headed by the formidable Nouriel Roubini (who was predicting the 2008 crash in some detail more than three years before it happened, and at the end of 2009 was ranked #4 in a list of 'The World's 100 Most Influential Thinkers' by Foreign Policy magazine [although they put Ben Bernanke in 1st place, so it's obviously a bit of a cockeyed ranking!]).

A couple of weeks ago, Mr Roubini warned of "a potentially destabilizing contradiction between China’s short- and medium-term economic performance". He went on, "The economy is overheating here and now, but China’s overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally."

In the current edition of Foreign Affairs, predicting fragmentation of the world order and increasing zero-sum competition between nations, he has observed that the emerging economies of Brazil, India, and China are "far too focused on domestic development to welcome the burdens that come with new responsibilities abroad".

I almost start to feel like a China-optimist by comparison....

I gather Mr R has also said - regarding the attempt by numerous governments to avert or ameliorate recession with massive spending programmes - "There's no such thing as a free lunch, especially when you have to pay for it."  (No, sorry, that must have been Yogi Berra. But Roubini has said something very similar.)

1 comment:

Froog said...

I think Mr Roubini actually said: "There's no such thing as a free lunch. Eventually you have to pay for it."

But I prefer the Yogi Berra version.