I had thought my pre-tournament (or right at the outset of the tournament, before many games had been played) prognostications on the World Cup had turned out to be pretty darned impressively accurate.
I called 11 of the 16 qualifiers from the group stage. And I could claim 12, since my suggestion that South Africa could do it was more a bit of wishful thinking, a kindly gesture of support to the host nation, rather than a serious prediction. I hadn't known that the Ivory Coast's devastating striker, Didier Drogba, was coming into the competition with a fractured forearm; that would have affected my assessment that they had the wherewithal to pip Portugal to qualification in Group G. And I maintain that Australia were desperately unlucky not to qualify ahead of Ghana in Group D.
I also had 5 of the 8 quarter-finalists (and, again, might claim 6, since my backing of South Korea over Uruguay was a burst of quixotic optimism rather than, you know, in earnest), and 2 of the 4 semi-finalists. And I predicted Spain to beat Germany 1-0 in the Final (having consulted an erroneous online rendition of the draw!); although the Spaniards have since alienated my affections with some iffy performances and some disgraceful gamesmanship, and I've actually been rooting for Germany through most of the tournament.
I didn't foresee the major upsets of Switzerland beating Spain or Serbia beating Germany - but who did? But I did predict that France would fail to qualify out of their group, and that England and Italy (and Portugal) would struggle to do so.
My major oversights were underestimating the boost Ghana would get from the "playing for the whole of Africa" phenomenon (they'd been pretty mediocre in their group games, but were a completely different proposition in the knockout phase), and failing to anticipate that Holland could transform themselves into a '70s era Germany/Italy, grinding out single-goal victories against better teams.
Aside from that, I was pretty much spot-on with most of the rest, and probably could have taken the bookies back home for quite a bit of money. OK, I didn't nail many 'exact scores' (although I wasn't really trying to), but I was mostly pretty accurate about the general margin of victory, and it would be hard to fault my analyses of the various teams' strengths and weaknesses. Indeed, on occasion, I predicted the overall pattern of a game in uncanny detail (most notably, the Uruguay v Ghana quarter-final).
But - apparently - my record is made to look puny, shot out of the water, if you will, by Paul, the World Cup octopus - who has called every single one of Germany's results so far (including their bizarre misfortune against Serbia, and the semi-final heartbreak against Spain).
His divination process seems to involve retrieving a tasty clam to eat from one of a pair of perspex boxes, each marked with the national flag of the one of the two teams in a match. I haven't been bothered to check out all of his archive, but I suspect he just goes for the nearest one each time, and that it was the serendipitous randomizing of the 'experimenters' rather than his psychic insight which 'predicted' the results. I imagine there might be an element of colour or pattern preference as well, perhaps sometimes trumping mere nearness of the clam. (Are octopuses colourblind? Apparently, expert opinion is still divided, or undecided, on this issue.)
Well, my multi-limbed nemesis has plumped for Spain tomorrow. Of course, this means nothing. He has prospered by blind fluke so far, rather than any miraculous powers of precognition or an astute appreciation of the game. And his streak's got to end some time. And, if I were a superstitious man (and I throw this crumb of comfort out to Holland fans and sports gamblers, who mostly are a fairly superstitious lot), I'd console myself with the observation that all of Paul's predictions thus far have been on matches involving Germany: his mojo may desert him when he's asked to judge the relative merits of other teams.
I suppose, to outdo the dratted creature, I will have to predict the scoreline rather than just the result - and for the last two games, rather than only the Final.
So, here goes [imagine portentous drum-roll].....
In tonight's Third Place Play-Off, I have to take Germany over Uruguay. I'm hoping it will be an open and fairly high-scoring game, so I'll suggest 3-2 to Germany as the final score (but within regular time; I don't see this going to extra time or penalties).
I called 11 of the 16 qualifiers from the group stage. And I could claim 12, since my suggestion that South Africa could do it was more a bit of wishful thinking, a kindly gesture of support to the host nation, rather than a serious prediction. I hadn't known that the Ivory Coast's devastating striker, Didier Drogba, was coming into the competition with a fractured forearm; that would have affected my assessment that they had the wherewithal to pip Portugal to qualification in Group G. And I maintain that Australia were desperately unlucky not to qualify ahead of Ghana in Group D.
I also had 5 of the 8 quarter-finalists (and, again, might claim 6, since my backing of South Korea over Uruguay was a burst of quixotic optimism rather than, you know, in earnest), and 2 of the 4 semi-finalists. And I predicted Spain to beat Germany 1-0 in the Final (having consulted an erroneous online rendition of the draw!); although the Spaniards have since alienated my affections with some iffy performances and some disgraceful gamesmanship, and I've actually been rooting for Germany through most of the tournament.
I didn't foresee the major upsets of Switzerland beating Spain or Serbia beating Germany - but who did? But I did predict that France would fail to qualify out of their group, and that England and Italy (and Portugal) would struggle to do so.
My major oversights were underestimating the boost Ghana would get from the "playing for the whole of Africa" phenomenon (they'd been pretty mediocre in their group games, but were a completely different proposition in the knockout phase), and failing to anticipate that Holland could transform themselves into a '70s era Germany/Italy, grinding out single-goal victories against better teams.
Aside from that, I was pretty much spot-on with most of the rest, and probably could have taken the bookies back home for quite a bit of money. OK, I didn't nail many 'exact scores' (although I wasn't really trying to), but I was mostly pretty accurate about the general margin of victory, and it would be hard to fault my analyses of the various teams' strengths and weaknesses. Indeed, on occasion, I predicted the overall pattern of a game in uncanny detail (most notably, the Uruguay v Ghana quarter-final).
But - apparently - my record is made to look puny, shot out of the water, if you will, by Paul, the World Cup octopus - who has called every single one of Germany's results so far (including their bizarre misfortune against Serbia, and the semi-final heartbreak against Spain).
His divination process seems to involve retrieving a tasty clam to eat from one of a pair of perspex boxes, each marked with the national flag of the one of the two teams in a match. I haven't been bothered to check out all of his archive, but I suspect he just goes for the nearest one each time, and that it was the serendipitous randomizing of the 'experimenters' rather than his psychic insight which 'predicted' the results. I imagine there might be an element of colour or pattern preference as well, perhaps sometimes trumping mere nearness of the clam. (Are octopuses colourblind? Apparently, expert opinion is still divided, or undecided, on this issue.)
Well, my multi-limbed nemesis has plumped for Spain tomorrow. Of course, this means nothing. He has prospered by blind fluke so far, rather than any miraculous powers of precognition or an astute appreciation of the game. And his streak's got to end some time. And, if I were a superstitious man (and I throw this crumb of comfort out to Holland fans and sports gamblers, who mostly are a fairly superstitious lot), I'd console myself with the observation that all of Paul's predictions thus far have been on matches involving Germany: his mojo may desert him when he's asked to judge the relative merits of other teams.
I suppose, to outdo the dratted creature, I will have to predict the scoreline rather than just the result - and for the last two games, rather than only the Final.
So, here goes [imagine portentous drum-roll].....
In tonight's Third Place Play-Off, I have to take Germany over Uruguay. I'm hoping it will be an open and fairly high-scoring game, so I'll suggest 3-2 to Germany as the final score (but within regular time; I don't see this going to extra time or penalties).
In the Final, I have to concur with the octopus (dammit!). Holland have been gathering momentum and confidence with each game (perhaps more so than Spain), and have developed a formidable habit of keeping on winning even when they've looked to be the second best team. However, I feel they've been riding their luck a bit, and it could at last be time for them to be found out. Spain have one of the best - if not the best - keepers in the world in Iker Casillas (although he's had a so-so season, and looked jittery for Spain in some of the earlier games here, he seems to be settling down now, and is starting to show some of his best form again), whereas Holland's Ajax keeper Maarten Stekelenburg has given the Dutch some cause for doubt. Spain also have the best striker in the tournament in David Villa, while Holland's Robin Van Persie seems to be in fairly wretched form and is obliging the midfield to contribute all his team's goals. Spain are thus, by some margin, the better team on paper, but.... Holland keep beating better teams. Not this time, though, I don't think. This one could go to extra time, but I fancy the Spanish to wrap it up inside 90 minutes; Holland always seem to get a goal from somewhere, so I'll say 2-1 to Spain.
Jia you, Xibanya!!
Where are you watching the game, Octopus?
2 comments:
Am I good, or what?
How do you like them clams, Mr Octopus?
Well, OK, I was off on the score for the final, but I got the winner and the margin of victory. I was spot on for the third-place play-off (I wonder what the odds were for that? I really should have tried to get a bet on somehow.)
In my fuller analysis over on The Barstool I noted that the game might turn out to be a rather sterile one, with the midfields cancelling each other out and a shortage of good scoring chances. It wasn't quite as dour as that: it managed to be quite an entertaining game, despite the defences being on top throughout - but it was obvious from pretty early on that it was likely to go into extra time scoreless, and maybe even end up in a penalty shoot-out.
I had (rashly!) made the more elaborate prediction to friends that it would end 2-1 in regular time, with Iniesta getting the breakthrough for Spain round about the half hour, Kuyt getting an equaliser for Holland (he was due!) shortly before or after the half, and David Villa nicking the winner with about 15 minutes left. That was based on a more optimistic reading of the game pattern, where there would be some scoring chances.... and, obviously, it fell to pieces when Kuyt was substituted. Still, at least I got Iniesta as the first goalscorer (though I suspect crafty English bookies would try to screw me with some small print to the effect that 'first scorer' bets only count within 90 minutes...).
I was a bit disappointed in Howard Webb's refereeing. I think he got conned by play-acting into waving yellow cards for fairly innocuous fouls a couple of times early on, and then didn't do enough to penalise continuing diving and play-acting through the game (almost all of it from the Dutch). At least he was quite good about waving away protesters and lobbyers.
I also think Spain should have had a penalty for Van Bommel's charging the Spaniard (Xabi Alonso, was it?) in the back. That was an utterly clearcut foul, for me. (The later appeal for Xavi's trip I wouldn't have given: it looked to me like an accident: he caught the guy's foot as he cocked his leg to shoot, rather than being wilfully tripped, and the contact wasn't enough to bring him down - although he was enough to make him miss the shooting chance.)
Nigel de Jong might have received a straight red for his attempt to kick Xabi Alonso in the throat (yeah, it might have been 'an accident', but it was still wildly dangerous play, even if he hadn't realised the player was that close to him), and I can't understand how Van Bommel stayed on the pitch after a string of nasty fouls (I can't understand how he wasn't already suspended, actually: he has been the dirtiest - most inept as well as roughest - challenger in this tournament, but refs have been amazingly lenient with him). On the other hand, the eventual sending of Heitinga was unjust - although it was too late in the game to make any difference, really.
No, our Howard didn't exactly cover himself in glory there.
The Dutch again rose to the challenge, producing probably the best team performance we've seen from them - but Robben was again largely ineffective, Sneijder had a relatively anonymous game, and Van Persie was still looking unfamiliar with the whereabouts of the goal. It was worrying to me that Spain, although having nearly twice as much possession, were creating fewer decent scoring chances than Holland - and when it got to extra time, I was starting to fret that the Dutch might steal it.
And then Del Bosque's decision to bring on Torres for Villa with ten minutes left was the kind of lunacy that deserves to lose a match. Villa, on his recent form, might snatch a goal out of nothing at the death; and you can't see him missing a penalty. Torres, on his recent form, you just can't see scoring at all, even from the penalty spot. And in the brief time he was on, he was dispossessed far too easily four or five times, and gave the ball away a few times with lazily misplaced passes - complete f***ing liability. Thank god for Iniesta's late breakthrough!
And, as if the Dutch hadn't done enough to damn the reputation of their football with their wild tackling and their horrible gamesmanship, we then had the ugly spectacle of Sneijder, Robben, and Van Bommel haranguing the ref (for what??) after the final whistle.
Morally, this was the right result. The Spaniards were far from spotless in their sporting conduct, but the Dutch were a complete bloody disgrace.
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