If I were an AMPAS voter

I've been on a bit of a binge of DVD buying and DVD watching over the past few weeks, and have now seen nearly all of this year's Oscar-nominated films.

With the awards ceremony about to take place tonight (well, tomorrow morning here in Beijing - I wonder if I'll be able to watch it online?), there is, as always, a gathering sense of dread that the event will be marred by unjust omissions and some lame choices of winners by the American Academy's voters.

Here's who I think should win:

Best Original Screenplay

This clearly ought to go to Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds, and there is quite a history of using this category as a consolation prize for the sort of film that is too unusual or 'challenging' to get recognition as Best Picture; but if the Academy is really down on Quentin (and I suspect they are), they might just possibly give it to the Coen brothers instead, to try to prove that they are open to the quirky and the experimental (just not when Quentin's doing it). If they give it to Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker (and I'm betting that they will), that will be a travesty: the script is the least impressive element of a very, very overrated film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

For my money, it ought to be An Education; but I suspect it may go to Precious instead, because that has more harrowing and 'worthy' subject matter and - for American voters - a more familiar setting. I suppose I'd be happy enough to see it go to any of the other three nominees too - In The Loop, District 9, Up In The Air; it's a very strong category this year.

Best Supporting Actress

Well, I'd give it to Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart; but I suspect Mo'nique's more showy turn as the abusive mother in Precious may steal it. I haven't yet seen Penelope Cruz in Nine, but I expect that she is, as usual, stunning in it (though it may count against her that she won in this category just last year). I hear there's a lot of buzz around Vera Farmiga for Up In The Air: that wouldn't be a bad choice, either; although she may suffer from the 'split vote' phenomenon, since Anna Kendrick is nominated for the same film. [I thought Rosamund Pike's glamorous bimbo in An Education deserved a nomination; a very subtle, very funny performance.]

Best Supporting Actor

An exceptionally strong field this year, probably more so than any of the other acting categories (and they're all pretty strong this time around), but, if there's any justice, the award should go to Christoph Waltz for his superb performance as the Nazi colonel in Inglourious Basterds (although I contend that he should have been nominated for, and won the Best Actor category). Sentimental oafs that the Oscar voters are, though, there must be a danger that they'll give it instead to Christopher Plummer for The Last Station as a kind of 'lifetime achievement award'. [If Waltz had been properly recognised as an actor in a leading role, it would have left room in this category for Alfred Molina, whose performance as the blustering father in An Education certainly deserved at least a nomination.]

Best Actress

The Last Station is another of those I haven't seen yet, but Helen Mirren is overdue for an award and her performances are almost always deserving of one. However, Carey Mulligan is also quite brilliant in An Education. There seems to be an awful lot of buzz about Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side: OK, I haven't seen that one, but.... it's hard to imagine. It sounds suspiciously like another case of the Oscar voters getting inappropriately sentimental, wanting to reward someone for a long career of "America's sweetheart" roles rather than this film in particular (presumably Ms Bullock is being forced to graduate into more dramatic fare at last by the rise of Jennifer Aniston in the rom-com arena). Now, I like Sandra Bullock well enough, but I don't believe she has great range as an actress; and even if she proves me wrong on that in this role, I'm prepared to bet that the performance still isn't in the same class as Helen Mirren's or Carey Mulligan's. [I've now watched The Blind Side, and Sandra Bullock is pretty good in it. It's a meaty, well-written part, but a lot of it depends on the strong accent (which, to me, doesn't seem completely consistent, and doesn't sound like anyone I know from Tennessee); and I can't help thinking that people are just impressed to see her taking on a serious dramatic role for a change.]

Best Actor

This will almost certainly go to Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, because a) he's long overdue for an Oscar (after inexplicably failing time and again even to get nominated for his great performances in films like The Fabulous Baker Boys, Tucker - The Man And His Dream, The Fisher King or The Big Lebowski), and b) roles as Country & Western singers always seem to win Oscars. So, it might be a case of the Academy making the right choice for the wrong reasons: Jeff would probably have won for this, even if he were terrible in it (he isn't, of course). Jeremy Renner is buoyed up by the tsunami of enthusiasm for The Hurt Locker, but I can't quite see him winning it: he gives a decent enough performance, but there's not a great deal of range in it; he doesn't have to do much except look quietly determined throughout, and much of the time he's doing that inside a bomb-proof helmet, so you can't really see him anyway. However, you have to figure that the mere concept of Morgan Freedman as Nelson Mandela (in Invictus) will get Academy voters' juices flowing. I have a sneaking fear that poor old Jeff might end up a bridesmaid again. [The conspicuous, shameful omission here was Sharlto Copley in District 9: a truly remarkable performance, streets better than Renner's, Firth's or Clooney's. Apparently, American audiences struggled with his South African accent!]

Best Director

This should go to Quentin Tarantino - who, even if you don't like him, you have to admit is doing things with more wit and flair and style, more of a personal vision than anyone else out there. However, it seems almost certain that Kathryn Bigelow will take the award for The Hurt Locker. Yes, it's high time a woman was honoured in this category. And yes, she's very good. But not for this film. And not over Tarantino.

Best Picture

This, of course, is going to go to The Hurt Locker (or Avatar). Almost any of the other nominated films (except Avatar) would be more deserving. Inglourious Basterds would be a bold, surprising choice - but the Academy is seldom bold, and almost never surprising in a good way: if they didn't give an Oscar to Pulp Fiction, they're not going to give one to Basterds (even the title works against it: no swearing for Middle America, please!). My vote would go to Lone Scherfig's An Education - a 'small' film, but beautifully executed and perfectly played: it has the vibrancy and charm of Roman Holiday, but with darker, more serious themes. It's very, very rare that I reach the end of a film and a) can't think of a single thing about it that could be improved; b) feel that I could watch it again tomorrow. Some time ago, I suggested that a ten-year delay in deciding on Best Picture awards would offer a more telling perspective and result in better choices. I think people will still be watching An Education in ten years' time, eagerly looking forward to it every time it comes around on TV. Cinema nerds will be enjoying Inglourious Basterds for years to come. Before long, I predict, The Hurt Locker (and, please god, Avatar) will be pretty much forgotten.

I haven't seen all of the films nominated for Best Animated Feature, but it seems overwhelmingly likely (since it also got a Best Picture nomination) that Up will win. My preference would have been for Fantastic Mr Fox or Coraline.

I could stand to see The Hurt Locker take the Best Cinematography Award for Barry Ackroyd, although I'd rather it went to Robert Richardson for Inglourious Basterds or Christian Berger for The White Ribbon.

I really, really hope that District 9 beats out Avatar for Best Visual Effects, though that is perhaps unlikely - Oscar voters will rally behind the hometown boy. To my mind, the aliens in District 9 are far more convincingly realised than those in Avatar (and the vaunted 'performance capture' technique used to animate the Na'vi's faces - well, it might have been done better than before, but it's not new).

Frankly, I hope Avatar leaves without a single award. It is a triumph of budget over intelligence, and a very bad marker for the future direction of the industry. A preposterous story, dismally badly written, and bombastically executed - "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing". It fully deserves the kind of comprehensive spurning meted out to The Color Purple.