Conspiracy theory

Once again the season of visa renewal anxiety is upon us.

It would appear that the Chinese government is even more antsy this year than last about the possibility of us troublesome foreigners making some embarrassing public show of our namby-pamby liberal-democratic political stance. Last year, the Olympics was the main focus of concern; this year, it is any one of a number of "sensitive" anniversaries.

Yet, curiously enough, there doesn't seem to be a big push to drive the foreigners out of the country right away - prior to 6/4 (as it is designated under the Chinese dating convention). No, it would appear that the celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the PRC in the first week of October are the thing they're really worried about us spoiling. I heard recently that 'F' Visas (for "business travellers" - although that's what the majority of people are on, because it's so damned difficult to get any other kind), in addition to being difficult or impossible to get within the country (or even in Hong Kong, long the traditional 'last resort' of the visa-challenged, since the visa issuing regime there is usually much more lax than on the mainland [and technically it counts as "overseas"!!]; lately, many people, it seems, have been forced to go properly abroad, often back to their home countries, to obtain a new visa), are no longer being issued for periods extending beyond mid-September; and new visas thereafter are unlikely to be issued until at least mid-October. It seems likely that it will be very difficult to get tourist visas during that period either. I wonder if they'll clamp down on student visas too? (I have one of the gold dust "foreign expert/full-time working permit" 'Z' Visas, so I'm hoping I'll be OK, but....)

No foreigners here (or as few as possible) around the great national celebration?? It's even worse than last year's Olympic crackdown.

Is it just because we might "shame" China in front of the international media by unfurling a "Free Tibet!" banner? Probably. It seems a bit of an excessive response, though.

The 'Brains Trust' (my drinking buddies and I) have come up with a rather darker explanation. The CCP is deeply divided. There is known to be a "hard left" faction which feels that the economic reforms have gone too far, and harks back nostalgically to the authoritarian heyday of The Great Helmsman. Ah, and then there's the PLA - a sinister and unknown quantity (a journo friend told me recently he thinks there's a feeling among a lot of the top brass that they're becoming marginalised politically, even as they are becoming more powerful militarily and economically [the PLA is involved in a huge number of commercial enterprises; and most of the generals seem to be getting independently super-rich through property development projects and the like]). The world financial crisis has brought a dramatic slowdown in economic growth and mass unemployment, placing huge strain on the leadership.

Hmmm - conditions ripe for a coup, do you think? And what better time than when everyone's on holiday? And the capital is FULL of police and troops for ceremonial purposes? And yes, when, probably, there'll be a parade of tanks and APCs down Chang'an Avenue?! And just before the next big Party Congress?

Just thinking out loud, you know.

I'm reminded of a comment I found a few years ago on a thread of Michael Jackson jokes:

"I'm not saying he's guilty. I'm just saying that if I were a billionaire paedophile, I'd build a funfair in front of my house."